09 November 2016

The Bradley effect and President-elect Trump


Donald J. Trump is going to be the 45th president of the USA. This was a shock to many, but not to the 37 million Americans who voted for him and Mike Pence, his running mate. He made promises over the last 18 months during his campaigns and even in his acceptance speech given in New York City at 7 pm Sydney time, which is about 3 am along the US East Coast. He promised to double growth in no set time. Will he build a wall between the US and Mexico? Will he practice what he preached about 'all Americans' and move from businessman to TV personality, to candidate, to statesman? Only time will tell.

The map of the vote (and the headline) on the New York Times website is fascinating.

Donald turned many historically blue states into bright red. He rode the waves of 'change' and 'anti-Establishment' all the way to the White House where he will find his oval office in less than 80 days. Americans are frustrated; let's see if this turns out better.

During the introduction of Mr Trump by Gov Pence, I did note that Pence's son's fiance Sarah was less than enthusiastic about comments about the president-elect. See the first few minutes of this CNN video online here

But I'm sure she'll come around in due course.

With all that now behind us, what awaits us? A Bible verse kept coming to mind today, as pundits spoke about the hidden Trump voters, those with a real desire for change, but who couldn't answer as such in polls before the election day. "For nothing is hidden that will not become evident, nor anything secret that will not be known and come to light." (Yeshua recorded in the Gospel of Luke 8:17) Secret agendas are never completely secret. Hidden ideas eventually come out. Yeshua, that is Jesus, explained it this way. Everything will come out. Be sure of that.

The Bradley effect is a theory concerning observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in some US elections where a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other. The theory proposes that some voters who intend to vote for the white candidate would tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for the non-white candidate. It was named after Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, who is black, who lost the 1982 California governor's race despite being ahead in voter polls going into the elections.

The Bradley effect suggests that the inaccurate polls were skewed by the phenomenon of social desirability bias. Specifically, some white voters give inaccurate polling responses for fear that, by stating their true preference, they will open themselves to criticism of racial motivation. Members of the public may feel under pressure to provide an answer that is seen to be more publicly acceptable, or politically correct. The reluctance to give accurate polling answers has sometimes extended to post-election exit polls as well. The race of the pollster conducting the interview may factor into voters' answers.

Look, I've tried to slip through some things. I've tried to hide my own wrong activities and I've been caught. And although at the moment I hated being caught, the reality is that I love the freedom of exposure. The reality train is a much smoother ride than one where one has to lie and cheat and duck and cleverly re-invent story.

So now we wait and see. What Donald said or what he will say and what he will do. Let's hope he does what he said in tonight's speech, "I pledge to every citizen of our land that I will be president for all of Americans, and this is so important to me. For those who have chosen not to support me in the past, of which there were a few people, I'm reaching out to you for your guidance and your help so that we can work together and unify our great country. As I've said from the beginning, ours was not a campaign but rather an incredible and great movement, made up of millions of hard-working men and women who love their country and want a better, brighter future for themselves and for their family. It is a movement comprised of Americans from all races, religions, backgrounds, and beliefs, who want and expect our government to serve the people, and serve the people it will."

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