A year ago people in Australia kept asking me who would win the US election. I kept insisting we wouldn't know anything until a year on (August 2008). The two factors would be the war in Iraq and the economy. Nothing else really matters. Eventually everything is subjugated by those factors. External security and internal wallets.
Now the two slates are filled in with McCain/Palin (who?) and Obama (who?)/Biden.
But the factors that remain are Iraq and money.
The reports are coming in well in the Republican column. We are winning in Iraq. The surge is working. Iraqis have a lot of extra money and are growing in peaceful and democratic life. That says a lot for the Repubs.
Economic news will be spun and respun over the next 60 days, but if petrol prices drop or remain steady, if the grocery bill drops even a bit, and if people have a bit more money in their wallet (not in comparison to 2002, but in comparison to last year or even January), they will stay the course.
Follow the money. That's who will win.